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parajumperspjs   , 30

from Represa Folsom


The reason is, that in all these classes of facts

but of the effects. The reason is, that in all these classes of facts, the causes are either not amenable to direct observation at all, or not with the requisite precision, and we have no means of judging of their frequency except from the empirical law afforded by the frequency of the effects. The inference does not the less depend on causation alone. We reason from an effect to a similar effect by passing through the cause. If the actuary of an insurance office infers from his tables that among a hundred persons now living, of a particular age, five on the average will attain the age of oakley outlet
seventy, his inference is legitimate, not for the simple reason that this is the proportion who have lived till seventy in times past, but because the fact of their having so lived shows that this is the proportion existing, at that place and time, between the causes which prolong life to the age of seventy, and those cheap oakleys
tending to bring it to an earlier close.[21] Sec. 5. From the preceding principles it is easy to deduce the demonstration of that theorem of the doctrine of probabilities, which is the foundation of its application to inquiries for ascertaining the occurrence of a given event, or the reality of an individual fact. The signs or evidences by which a fact is usually proved, are some of its consequences: and the inquiry hinges upon determining what cause is most likely to have produced a given effect. The theorem applicable to such investigations is the Sixth Principle in Laplace's Essai Philosophique sur les Probabilites, which is described by him as the "fundamental principle of that branch of the Analysis of Chances, which consists in ascending from events to their causes."[22] Given an effect to be accounted for, and there being several causes which might have produced it, but of the presence of cheap oakley sunglasses
which in the particular case nothing is known; the probability that the effect was produced by any one of these causes is as the antecedent probability of the cause